By Basant Khadka
Kathmandu- On July 12, Nepal will witness yet another political upheaval when Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka “Prachanda,” goes up for a probable losing fifth round of the floor test.
In the 275-member House, PM Dahal is currently falling short of the necessary 138 magic numbers.
After the CPN-UML withdrew its support from the coalition government formed by the CPN-Maoist Centre on July 3, Prime Minister Dahal is leading a minority administration. Only 32 seats make up his party, the CPN-MC, and several of his coalition members have left him to join the NC-CPN-UML administration.
Following the withdrawal of Ashok Rai’s Janata Samajbadi Party’s seven seats and the CPN-UML’s 78 seats, Prachanda was left with just 63 votes.
The decision was taken to continue supporting the Dahal-led government by the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), which holds 21 seats, and the CPN-US, which holds 10 seats.
Instead of stepping down, Dahal chose to stand for a vote of confidence in parliament. After a year and a half, this is his fifth vote of confidence. He is probably going to lose with the existing equation.
Merely four months following its coalition with the ruling CPN-MC to establish a government, the CPN-UML reached a power-sharing agreement at midnight on July 1 with its erstwhile adversary, the Nepali Congress to form a ‘national consensus government’.
In order to become Nepal’s fourteenth prime minister, KP Sharma Oli, the leader of the CPN UML, is expected to call on President Ram Chandra Poudel on July 12 to submit his majority for the formation of a new government under Article 76 (2) of the Constitution.
Oli will lead the government in the legislature until the next election with the support of the 89-seat Nepali Congress, various fringe parties, the Nagrik Unmukti Party, the Ashok Rai-led JSP.
The CPN-UML’s Oli and the NC’s Sher Bahadur Deuba will alternate as prime ministers for 18 months each until the next general election in 2027, as per the accord signed on July 1.
The allocation of ministerial portfolios between the NC and CPN-UML has been agreed upon; the NC will oversee ten ministries, and the CPN-UML would oversee nine.
By choosing “senior and dynamic leaders” like Padam Giri, Surya Thapa, Balram Adhikari, PS Gurung, and Yogesh Bhattarai, Oli is meticulously building his team.
Bishnu Rimal will be appointed as the PM’s advisor. To discuss the next steps to be taken on both internal and foreign concerns, he had earlier called a meeting of his secretariat.
The new coalition has decided to eliminate the post of Deputy Prime Minister. Usually, Nepal appoints at least two deputy prime ministers.
These crucial ministerial portfolios are expected to be filled by Congress Ramesh Lekhak for the Home Ministry, Arzu Deuba Rana for the Foreign Ministry, Gagan Thapa for the Health and Population Ministry or Education, Science and Technology Ministry, and Binod Chaudhary for the Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation Ministry.
From the UML side, Bishnu Poudel is expected to join as Finance Minister.
On geo-politics front, it is anticipated that Oli will restore the diplomatic ties with China and India, the neighbors.
However, all eyes are on the signing of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) implementation plan. The Nepali Congress concluded that Nepal should only accept grants and not loans from China BRI projects.
The upcoming administration’s top priorities on the domestic front will be rewriting the nation’s constitution, examining its economic plans, and altering the electoral process.
Undoubtedly, the process of amending the constitution would not be simple. Given that the two biggest parties are creating a new administration, many parliamentarians see this as a stable alliance.
