Kathmandu [Nepal], July 23 – As domestic agricultural production struggles to keep pace with demand, Nepal has become increasingly dependent on imported raw material. In fiscal year 2024-25the country imported agricultural products worth Rs 400 billion which includes rice, vegetables, fruits, edible oils and animal feed. This dependency has worked so far because neighbouring countries particularly India haveenough to export. But what will be the consequences if climate change leads to crop failure across the South Asia? One result of climate change is El Niño which is becoming more vulnerable in the warming world.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by unusual warm sea surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It develops every two to seven years and lasts for months.Though it originates thousands of kilometres away, it strongly influences Nepal by weakening the South Asian summer monsoon.
The 2015-16 El Niño was among the strongest that was ever felt. Globally, El Niño sets record temperature, severe drought conditions and agricultural losses. The country also experienced below normal rainfall lower crop yields and worsening water shortages in many districts during this period. Due to El Niño in 2023-24 there weredelayed monsoon rains, increased forest fires and dried up springs. According to the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology several parts of Nepal recorded below-average rainfall during this period.
Scientists are not predicting an El Niño through 2027. However, the World Meteorological Organization and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are facing a broader concern. Therising global temperatures is already affecting the temperature, making droughts, arising heatwaves and erratic rainfall. And due to El Niño or La Niñathese conditions have worsened.
Nepal is often described as one of the world’s richest countries in water resources. The country has more than 6,000 rivers and rivulets annual renewable water resources is estimated at 225 billion cubic metres and the country also has an economically feasible hydropower potential of about 42,000 megawatts.
Nearly 80 percent of the annual rainfall in Nepaloccurs during the monsoon but very little water is stored for the summers. According to the experts, Nepal stores only a small portion of its surface water. Most rivers flow downstream leaving communities vulnerable to water shortages as the monsoon ends. If El Niño weakens the monsoon the consequences will spread quickly.
The rice transplantation will be delayed, wheat and maize yields will decline. Springs that supply drinking water to rural communities will begin to dry up. Lower river flows will reduce hydropower generation and increasing electricity imports during dry months. Risk of forest fires will increase which will worsen air pollution.
According to the Department of Customs, Nepal spends hundreds of billions of rupees annually on agricultural imports. India supplies the majority of these goods.
But what if India is affected with El Niño. What if future El Niño events reduce production across India, Bangladesh and other regional suppliers then Nepal could face rising food prices, supply shortages and greater inflation. In other words, Nepal cannot assume that imports will always be available when climate shocks hit.
So, is the country prepared?
Nepal has started the National Adaptation Plan (2021-2050), the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement and several climate resilient agriculture programmes to combat severe weather conditions.As these plans comes into effect, early warning systems for floods and extreme weather have improved and irrigation expansion continues in some districts.
Yet implementation remains uneven. Large scale reservoirs capable of storing monsoon water arelimited and many projects are facing delay. The Climate resilient seed distribution has not reached enough farmers of the country. Groundwater recharge, watershed conservation and rainwater harvesting remain underfunded as a result there is no improvement in these areas. Food storage capacity is also inadequate to satisfy prolonged supply disruptions.
Nepal does not need to reinvent the wheel. Countries facing similar climate risks are already investing and finding ways of long-term resilience rather than short-term relief. Like India is expanding irrigation networks promoting droughtresistant crops and creating awareness of seasonal climate advisories to farmers.
China is strengthening food security through massive water storage infrastructure and strategic grain reserves.
Australia has developed sophisticated drought forecasting system and water-sharing policies while Israel has transformed water scarcity into resilience through wastewater recycling and highly efficient irrigation tools and programs.
Climate change is no longer just an environmental issue, it has become an economic and national security issue too. Nepal’s dependence on food imports may appear manageable during normal years but it becomes a major vulnerability when neighbouring countries are battling the same climate crisis.
The next major El Niño should not be treated as another seasonal weather event. It should be viewed as a major concern for Nepal’s water security, agricultural resilience and food sovereignty and the government needs stricter action on it. If the makers wait until the shelves of supermarket begin to empty or food prices surge the response will already be too late.
The real question is not whether Nepal will face another El Niño. It is whether Nepal will prepare before the next one arrives.
About author: Beyond writing and working as a Producer, Sakshi is a passionate journalist with a keen interest in health, politics and business.
