Washington [US], August 8 – US intelligence agencies assess that Russia could launch a limited attack against a NATO member within the next few years potentially through cyber operations hybrid tactics or a small-scale military incursion, according to reports by The Wall Street Journal and CNN.
The assessment suggests Moscow’s primary objective would not be to trigger a large-scale war but to test NATO’s unity and its commitment to collective defence under Article 5 which treats an attack on one member as an attack on all.
Sources familiar with the intelligence estimate said a possible Russian move could occur between this autumn and 2029. While a major conventional invasion is considered unlikely in the near term officials believe the Baltic states or Poland could be among the most likely targets if Moscow decides to escalate tensions.
US analysts say Russia may seek to exploit legal and political uncertainty over whether cyberattacks, hybrid operations or limited border incursions would automatically trigger NATO’s collective defence clause.
Officials also warned that developments in the Ukraine war could influence the risk. They believe Russian President Vladimir Putin could increase pressure on NATO if he fails to secure what Moscow considers a favourable outcome in Ukraine.
NATO said it is closely monitoring the security situation and remains prepared to defend all member states against any potential threat.
